Real estate markets are always shifting, but this month feels like a plot twist. After months of steady growth, the latest data shows a surprising jump in cancellations and an uptick in inventory. Does this mean we’re finally headed for a correction in the Temecula and Murrieta markets—or is it just a bump in the road?

Let’s break it down.

The Stat That Changed Everything

The biggest headline? 14.9% of transactions have recently been canceled. That means about 1.5 out of every 10 deals is falling out of escrow.

Why does that matter? Because canceled homes go back on the market, which inflates:

• Days on Market (DOM)

• Inventory levels

• And can make the market look weaker than it actually is.

It’s less about sellers suddenly struggling, and more about deals getting wobbly—sometimes due to financing, appraisals, or buyers simply spooked by the headlines.

Days on Market Are Creeping Up

• Murrieta: 32 days (up from 25)

• Temecula: 24 days (up from 19)

Those are still strong numbers, but the increase shows homes are sitting longer—often because they’re bouncing back after cancellations.

List Price vs. Sales Price

Sellers are still getting solid offers, but the percent of list price dipped slightly:

• Murrieta: 98.5% (down from 99.2%)

• Temecula: 98.8% (down from 99.8%)

👉 Translation: If your home is overpriced—even by $10,000—it could sit. Buyers are hypersensitive right now, and anything above market value gets ignored.

Inventory Rising, But Still a Seller’s Market

Months of supply is the metric that tells us if it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market.

• Murrieta: 2.8 months (up from 2.5)

• Temecula: 2.7 months (up from 2.5)

Since “balanced” is 6 months, both cities are still firmly in seller’s market territory. The extra inventory is more about cancellations rolling over than a flood of listings.

Closed Sales Took a Hit

• Murrieta: 116 closed sales (down from 156)

• Temecula: 118 closed sales (down from 120)

That’s one of the lowest levels Temecula has seen in a while—just above the psychological “100 mark.” Again, cancellations are the culprit.

The Surprise Twist: Prices Went Up

Despite all the above, average sales prices rose:

• Murrieta: $724,000 (up from $714K)

• Temecula: $852,000 (up from $844K)

So while activity slowed, values are still inching upward.

The Wild Card: Interest Rates Dropped

Here’s where things get interesting. Rates just dipped—some FHA and VA loans are now below 6%.

That creates a tiny window of opportunity:

• For buyers: Homes are sitting longer, sellers are nervous after cancellations, and you can lock in at lower rates. This sweet spot may only last a few weeks before the market heats back up.

• For sellers: Price your home right and you’ll catch the wave of new buyers rushing back in as rates improve. Miss the mark, and you risk sitting on the market while everyone else sells.

So, Are We Headed for a Correction?

Not quite. Here’s the reality:

• Yes, cancellations are up.

• Yes, inventory and days on market rose.

• But prices are still climbing, and demand hasn’t disappeared.

This isn’t a crash, it’s a pause button. And with rates trending lower, the pause may end faster than expected.

The Bottom Line

The Temecula and Murrieta real estate markets are showing mixed signals: cancellations and inventory up, but prices and demand holding steady. That’s not the recipe for a correction—it’s a sign of a sensitive market reacting to uncertainty.

👉 For buyers: This is your best chance in months to negotiate before competition surges again.
👉 For sellers: Precision matters—price your home accurately, and you’ll still find strong offers.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in the Temecula Valley?

Whether you’re looking to take advantage of the buyer’s window or strategize as a seller in today’s shifting market,

I’d love to help.

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Why Work With a Local Market Expert?

When the market sends mixed signals, experience matters most. As one of the leading agents in the Temecula Valley and greater Riverside County, I help clients cut through the noise—understanding when to act, when to wait, and how to price strategically.

For sellers, I use a data-driven marketing strategy that pairs digital advertising with deep local knowledge, ensuring maximum exposure. For buyers, I know where opportunities are hiding, especially in markets with higher cancellations.

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